A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
